A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
