Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
